David Blaine: Take one which is not written on, which is almost all of it and write your name on it. If you want to sign it… whatever is good. Now look what I do, so you can all see. Let’s say I was in a game of poker and I wanted to control this as an ace, right? I had to write so you’d know this is one of its kind but let’s say I knew the position of the ace which the first important part where it goes in the deck. The hard part is to control it from the top… just… Here, I’ll do it again. Look. It goes in… it would go… in the middle, right? Just do that move… See that?
Audience: (Laughing)
DB: I’ll show it to you again because now you know what I’m doing. So look… No. What I mean is now you know what’s about to happen. Look, I’ll leave it slightly out so you can see the name. Now I know if it was an ace again like I know about where it’s here, its 8 cards down plus another 17 which is 25 but look.
Audience: (Laughing)
DB: No, no. But here’s the hard part. It’s not here yet, right? That one motion and I would be dealing and you wouldn’t see it I pulled the ace right out from… here. But wait, look, here’s how you make it more difficult. They gambler they used to uh, they would crimp cards. Not this much. This is a crimp. You could kind of see it from the side. This is over exaggerated, but can you see that crimp?
Audience: Uh-huh.
DB: Yeah? So they would do it less and they would know where the ace or where your card is. Here’s the hard part. (snaps finger)See? It jumps like that through the deck.
Audience: (Laughing)
DB: Okay, so I’ll teach this one, you want to see what happens?
Audience: Yeah
DB: You guys want to come closer though. Look here. Look. Watch closely. Just watch the cards. Keep it… I mean watch as close as you can on the card. Get… no… no… get in there, get in there. Look. See here’s… No… no… trust me. Get the whole thing. Look. So we’ll leave it slightly out. Look closely. Push it in, all the way (snaps finger). Oh shi…
DB: Just take one out and don’t let me see it. But let everybody else see it. Doesn’t…. are you sure. Look at it. Let everybody see it. Put it back inside all the way in, okay. As soon as I hit the deck I make your card… They’re not your card but another card, that’s like your card, jump to the top…
Audience: (Laughing)
DB: Hold your hand out. Let’s try this, when I’m wrong, here’s what I do. When you make a mistake you have to redeem your… so here I’ll just start ripping until we get it right. Okay? Tell me the truth. Say what your card was. What was your card?
G01: Seven of hearts.
DB: You know what. Seven of hearts and queen of hearts are two favorite cards I miscalculated. So here’s the hard part. How do we get the seven of hearts like if it goes over, and under… See? Did you feel that? Not really right? See how… jumps, you know changes place… yeah good.
Audience: (Laughing)
DB: Squeeze them tight. Hold tight. It might not work but keep them… it’s good that your hands warm. Keep pressure… and because our plastic code of the pieces are sticky. Well, not sticky, but they’ll start to stick. Do you feel it starting to get warm?
Derren Brown: Essentially what this is… is…. I mean it’s a past trick. This is how I started. But I write something down behind my back. I put it behind my back so you can’t see what the pencil is doing and you can’t guess what it says.
Judy: On your back?
Richard: This is for Judy only or both of us?
DB: This is so… it’s just for Judy only… I lost the pencil on the side of the sofa… I will seal that off in there. Now Judy, this is a letter of the alphabet.
Richard: Here’s another pen of yours.
DB: I’ve done it now, that’s all right… thank you. It’s a letter of the alphabet. You couldn’t possibly know what it is so don’t try and guess it. It’s not an “R” or a “J” because that might be a little bit obvious but just name at the moment what letter feels right to you.
Judy: “A”
DB: “A” for apple?
Judy: Uh-huh.
DB: Any particular reason why you say it?
Judy: No, it just came into my mind, I mean, and I said that.
DB: Came into your mind? Open it and have a look.
Judy: This is so spooky.
DB: It’s indeed an “A.”
Judy: It’s A!
DB: So that would seem… but that would… it would seem like a free choice.
Richard: How the hell did you do that?
DB: It would seem like a free choice. Yes? And yet what I’m doing is I’m telling you to think of A and this is actually what it’s about. It’s about…
Richard: So you didn’t know that she was going to say “A” you told her say “A”
DB: Yes, but that felt like you’ve just made that “A” up. Just right then, didn’t you, in your head?
Judy: Yeah.
DB: Yeah. Any particular reason?
Judy: Well… uh… what did you say? You said something like I want you to think of a particular letter in the alphabet, any letter.
Richard: Not “R” and “J.”
Judy: No. But before he said no “R” and “J” and I immediately thought of “A.”
Richard: Maybe it was “A” for… maybe it was “A” for the me and… was it the “and” “R” and “J?”
Judy: No, no. Because it was before he said that. Weird and you’re not going to tell us how he did it.
DB: If you try to set that…
Richard: You know, do a map trick.
DB: Yes.
Richard: It’s been baffling me all day because I can’t see how you’re going to do this.
Db: All right. Okay. Well, we’ve heard a number of times that psychics apparently have, um, been able to tell where oil is by a sort of, hovering their hands over a map and [IB] to tell where to drill for oil. I think its nonsense. I think what’s happening is, the psychic in question is picking up on the signals from people and some of them and someone in the room knows where the oil is and he can tell.
Richard: All right.
DB: Uh, where it’s supposed to be… so let me show you this. Come over here. This is a map of London.
Richard: Yeah.
DB: All right? And we haven’t set anything up. I haven’t told you to help me out here.
Richard: Not… on the contrary you said don’t help you in any way shape or form and I’m not going to.
DB: I appreciate that. What I’d like you to do is, without giving anything away by looking anywhere on the map but think of somewhere in London. An address, or a road or a place that has a significance for you of some sort. Take a minute to do that.
Richard: All right I’ve got one.
DB: Nothing… nothing too obvious. Not the first place you’ve met Judy or anything… that’s something… all right.
Richard: No.
DB: A little bit more obscure perhaps. Great, okay. Now would you look at me and don’t try to help me out here. Just put your hands by your sides. So can you take half a step nearer? All right. Just look me right in the eye and keep looking at me and think of the place.
Richard: I’m thinking of it.
DB: Can you make a mental image of it?
Richard: Yeah, I’ve got it. A fixed picture in my head.
DB: All right. Then I’ll ask you to be absolutely quiet when I do this I realize that maybe… cripplingly difficult. Just for a second. And think about the place. Think about where it would be. How it looks like. How you’d get there if you were approaching from the river where you’d uh… where you’d go.
Richard: All right. Okay.
DB: All right. Where about without looking at the map… where about in the map it might be and just think of that and in your mind direct me to the right place. It’s… are you thinking about… can you think… the association… the association it’s a man. You’re thinking of a man.
Richard: I am. Yes.
DB: Yeah. And it’s not you, it’s not a relation. It’s a man and he’s wearing unusual clothes. Yes?
Richard: Yes.
DB: I guess like a hat and it’s got something in its mouth.
Richard: Yes.
DB: Just think of it. Just think; left, right, just tell me where to go I’m going to… right there! Right there. Don’t look. Can we get a camera? Just draw a circle around my finger Judy that would be fantastic.
Richard: All right.
DB: Can you tell me, as the camera comes in and just shows us where that is.
Richard: Judy you lift the map up to show the camera.
DB: Tell me where I was. Tell me where it was. You were thinking of Sherlock Holmes weren’t you?
Richard: I was thinking of Baker Street and Sherlock Holmes and the museum there, you drive past it most mornings.
DB: Can you see… what did I get? Am I anywhere close?
Richard: You’re on Baker Street.
DB: It’s pegged so that they call it Baker St. in Marvin Rd.
Richard: And that’s where the museum is. There right in the middle of the circle. C’mon. Give it up.
DB: I’d actually do like to thank you sir.
Richard: I cannot begin to work out how that… how that happened.
DB: You’re telling me… you tell me what’s…
Richard: Impossibly have known… In that little pause before I thought of that.
DB: Yeah.
Richard: Because I thought of… what amuses me about it is there are lots of… a lot of Japanese tourists always outside the Sherlock Holmes Museum and I think, a lot of them think that he really existed and it was um… we usually found ourselves in the traffic there, looking at it and that’s Baker’s St and it’s our route in, most mornings.
DB: I see.
Richard: And yet it was about the fifth thing that crossed my mind. I thought of Regent’s Park, I thought of North End Road…
Judy: When did you think that? When did you think then? Just then?
Richard: Yeah, yeah just then. I have a few images, you know because obviously I wanted it to be involving you as well and then I thought ah! But obviously we never really talk about the Sherlock Holmes Museum didn’t we?
Judy: No.
DB: I’m a huge Holmes fan, I’m amazed of him myself, yeah. It’s uh… But you were telling me… you were telling me as we sit there which is… as we stand which is what it is.
Richard: And the “A” thing even though it was much simpler, the “A” thing was extraordinary.
Judy: I extra [IB]. You never fail to astonish us.
DB: I do fail sometimes it doesn’t work all the time with everybody…
Judy: Really. That’s modest:
Richard: Well that’s part of the risk. Good.
Judy: Well. Maybe you’ll fail later, because he’s coming back. A little bit later. Go on then.
DB: If you’d like [IB], all right. Can I sit you… just maybe change so that you’re sort of facing each other dead on. Definitely I think sit a little bit forward for this. Natural pose as well as… Um…
Judy: Just start looking inscrutable.
Richard: My special thing.
Judy: Go on.
DB: That’s a polite word for it. Can… can you both look… will you just take your hand down put it there, and if you look just here on Richard and you look just here on Judy.
Richard: Okay.
DB: All right. Um, and I’m going to ask you… uh, Richard what I’m going to ask you to do is to… you’re going to send something across, an image or a word, all right? Soon as you… all you have to do is forget about whether its psychic or not, believe in it or not, because I don’t believe in it. But just imagine a screen in your mind and slowly build an image or word; however you want to see it. And um, just so that people don’t feel that we’ve prearranged exactly what you think of, change your mind a few times so that you settle on something now and that’s what you’re going to be thinking of. All right?
Richard: Got it, yeah.
DB: As he does that your task for me… and just keep staring right there, is to also build an image in your mind.
Judy: Right.
DB: And all you have to do is face him and just sit there and concentrate on that one image and that’s all I’m going to ask you to do. All right?
Judy: Okay.
DB: And as you look at each other, just both of you relax and in your mind just start making that image bigger and brighter.
Richard: Okay.
DB: And slowly now this thing that you’re thinking of whatever it is, as you look there, just to slowly form in front of you. And imagine instead of like a little screen now that it’s changed to like an IMAX screen, in between you, a huge screen with that picture on. Richard make that picture bigger. Imagine you’ve got controls that you can turn up and you can make the contrast more, you can make it bigger and brighter and more and more vivid.
Richard: Uh-huh.
DB: And also in your mind, whatever it is start to say it over and over again, and you do the same thing. Whatever you’re picturing now just start to say it over and over again in your mind repeating it in your mind. And then start shouting it, turn up the volume in your mind. Say nothing out loud. Give nothing away, keep staring at each other and just transmit that across to Judy. Transmit it across, send it across. And start shouting in your mind over and over again what it is. Louder and louder and louder and louder and just concentrate and relax and just see what comes to mind. Build that image in your own mind keep staring at each other louder and louder and louder, and then stop both of you. Okay? Now so that you know your answers are honest, take that for me. Don’t let me see what you write. And don’t let Judy see on it. Just write down, or you can draw a picture if you had a picture or you can write what it was that you were thinking. Judy…
Judy: Hm?
DB: In all honesty, as you were doing that what were you picturing in your mind.
Judy: I was picturing a shoe.
DB: You were picturing a shoe.
Judy: Uh-huh.
DB: Any particular shoe?
Judy: Just a shoe, a sort of mum’s shoe I think of actually.
DB: All right, any reaction there?
Richard: its close, it’s close.
DB: What were you thinking of? What were you picturing? Boots.
Judy: Good grief!
DB: Yeah.
Judy: That is weird.
DB: Man’s boots or ladies boots.
Richard: I was thinking of her boots actually.
Judy: That was the uh… because you were looking at my boots. It’s…. that’s weird.
DB: That is bizarre isn’t it?
Richard: Out of all the things I could think of and it’s an item of footwear.
DB: And there’s nothing remotely psychic about it. There really isn’t. It’s the weirdest thing it’s absolutely bizarre.
Judy: But you’ve never even mentioned the word “foot” or “shoe” or…
DB: No. But if you watch this back, if you watch this tape back and watch it second by second you will see…
Derren Brown: I’m here at Sundown racecourse and I’m sorry they’re expecting fifteen thousand people here today and half a million pounds of exchange in cash. I’m here, because I’ve developed a guaranteed system for winning at the horses. This system allows me to predict 24 hours in advance; quite openly which horse will win in big high profile races.
Now to prove this, six weeks ago, I took a woman, a random member of the public and I told her which horse was going to win in a certain race. It did win, she was intrigued. I then did it again and again and again. She started to bet larger and larger amounts of money. Now today, that woman has scraped together every last penny that she could find and she’s risking it all on one final race. Is it really possible to accurately predict the winner of a horse race, again and again and again? I’m going to tell you exactly, how that’s done.
Welcome to the “System.”
P.A. System: (announcing the events of the race)
DB: Horseracing – often known the sport of kings can be traced back to the 12th century after the English knights returned from the crusades with Arab horses. They were bred with English horses to produce the thoroughbred which is the breed used in horseracing in the U.K. today. Since the chariot races of Roman times to the multi mullion pound global business today, horseracing has been a popular sport in many countries throughout history and is often inextricably associated with gambling.
Man: (giving out betting odds)
Woman: If it’s ten to one, people a pound on will get ten pound back.
Gary Wiltshire: There’s somebody there who put ten pound on Pascal on that’s seven to two. Well seven to two is three and a half to one. So for their 10 pound they win 35 pound plus their 10 at stake so they get 45 pound return. But as you can see, we’ve got horses on the board there, uh 200:1 number 14 now that’s got, practically no chance of winning. So I’d at least swim in the channel of [IB], it’s got no possible chance. You know, but they’ve all got four legs. You know they’ve all got four legs on the [IB], so anything can happen.
Sarah Clifford: It’s just instinct really. You just see a horse and you think “oh that looks good, I’ll put maybe my five pounds on that one.”
DB: I was rather obsessed with gambling as a teenager and in particular the idea of winning systems and it was around that time that this system was born, a guaranteed way of having somebody win at the horses again and again and again. So I need somebody who would benefit from my system. So I took a random member of the public after making sure that she didn’t have a history of gambling and I sent her an email without mentioning my name predicting the winner of the next day’s horserace.
Khadisha: My name’s Khadisha, I live in Key. I work two jobs, I have a son. My personal situation is that I’m a single mom. I pay all bills by myself with the two jobs that I have. I never have a large sum of money because it always goes out, because of responsibilities that I’ve got in life. I was at on my desk when I got my first tip. I received an email first. I thought it was a bit crazy, a bit mad. But I thought “hey, I’m up for a laugh, so hey, bring it in.”
DB: I didn’t tell Khadisha that it was me sending her the predictions because I didn’t want that knowledge affecting her. But instead is set about sending her a number of anonymous tips, sent over several weeks so that she would gain the confidence in the system that I wanted her to have.
Khadisha: I got it by email first then I got confirmation again via text. He gave me details of the horse, time it was running and where it was running and he said that I wasn’t able to bet, I’ll just have to watch the race.
DB: We emailed Khadisha and offered her the chance to take part in a TV documentary about an anonymous tipster who claimed to have a perfect system for the horses along with the email; I also sent her my first prediction and told her not to place a bet but just to make sure she watched the race. I told her that the 9:20 at Wolverhampton, the next day would be won by a horse called “Boz.”
Announcer: They’re off, and Boz was swiftly into its stride in the blue jacket of the inside…
DB: On the day of the race, I’d hoped she’d be watching at home just to see if the prediction would come true. She was, and she saw the race was won by Boz, as I predicted. I had got her attention.
Khadisha: That was [IB] but hey, I watched it and it won.
DB: Now that Khadisha was getting more intrigued, I asked her to keep a video diary from this point onwards to keep a camera with her as a tip could come at any time.
Khadisha: Placing my second bet now with the system very confident… Race 2 when I able to put a bet down, I was given just the name of the horse and the time, again I was at work, received it by text, again confirmed by email and I literally left my desk. It wasn’t even like I need to go out I just zoomed out the first bet in the shop. Recorded myself placing a bet, it was exciting actually.
DB: My next prediction for Khadisha, again, 24 hours in advance of the race was for the 6: 37 Suffolk Downs in Boston in America and for a horse called “Laced Up” to win.
Khadisha: Well it was in Boston. How could you know he was going to win in Boston?
DB: The system guarantees a winner but despite how impossible that sounds Khadisha was prepared to put up some of her own money. Amazingly, impossibly as the system predicted Laced Up won. Despite not being the favorite and Khadisha picked up her first winnings.
Khadisha: The second race I won about 28 quidditch.
DB: Race three was at Carlisle and my prediction was for “Naunton Brook” to win even though it was an 18:1 outsider and therefore the horse that was least likely to win the race.
Khadisha: Me again, still here. Well as you can see I’m in the bookies now Carlisle race, I’ve been told. So I’m now going to write out my slip. Fingers crossed. Naunton Brook 18: 1 20£ to win , it better win okay? Anxious, nervous and a little bit excited because the last two races won. Oh good god, this better win. Oh my god and they’re off. I’ve been confident in the system so far so I’m going to remain confident. Holding this paper very tightly. Naunton Brook leads! Oh my god.
Announcer:… and Naunton Brooks keeps galloping on.. and they come inside the final furlong Naunton Brooks went out and fine for a long time two miles [IB] is gaining with every stride…
Khadisha: Oh my god… the horse is catching up. Oh my god the horse is catching up!
Announcer: Naunton Brook has won!
Khadisha: Thank you! The system! Oh my gosh! Show me the money! Oh my gosh show me the money! (shouting) Can you believe that?! On camera!
DB: This is Khadisha’s third win in a row she’s just won 360£ from a 20£ bet from an 18:1 outsider that no one thought should win the race. My prediction for race four, the 2:45 at Wolverhampton, was a horse called formation.
Khadisha: Race four, I was out in a bar with my friends. Oh my god! He’s going to win again I’m telling you, I feel so much confident. I was still in disbelief on who this person is, this anonymous person is who uses the system, what is the system…
Announcer: … who once again moves to ahead of…
Khadisha: Yeah!
DB: The chance of four wins in a row being predicted at random are already over a thousand to one but the system guarantees a win, Khadisha’s now won four times in a row and gained nearly 500£ in cash. I’ve managed to convince her, the system works and that something extraordinary is happening.
Khadisha: I do feel good when you need the money all the time.
Guest: I can’t believe what I’m seeing really. I’m actually flabbergasted.
Guest02: Thought it was pretty much impossible. I’m now curious to know what he’s come up with.
Derren Brown: So by this point Khadisha had received four winning predictions from me, now it was time for her to experience the thrill of a real racecourse, for race number 5. For race 5 we now go to Newbury for a high-profile and well attended event. Some 11,000 people are watching it from the stands on top of the millions watching it on TV at home. The name of the winning horse has already been given to Khadisha 24 hours beforehand. There’s no way that I or anyone else should be able to predict the outcome.
Khadisha: I’ve come today to Newbury at the races. I’ve never been to a racecourse before this is very much the first time for me. Today I need to put down 150£ was like breathtaking and it’s going to be on Lively Jay, Joe Lively so, very exciting very nervous and he just better win. Here he is for my racing cards Newbury, Joe Lively, 11:2.
DB: Khadisha has still no idea that the amazing winning predictions have been coming from me. The day before race five, the 2:05 at Newbury I sent out my prediction for a horse called Joe Lively. It’s an outsider, at 11:2. But Khadisha is making the biggest bet she’s made so far, with 150£ of her own money. What she doesn’t know, is that I’m also here and after the race, she’ll be meeting me for the first time.
Man over P.A.: They’re off, the yellow jacket of Joe Lively from the outside of them. Joe lively running elegant and free…
Khadisha; They’re coming around now.
Man over P.A.: The outside for Joe [IB], of the yellow and red jacket just over a left behind [IB].. the first three quarters of a mile as they come again left handed and into the state for the first time and head down towards fence number 4.
Khadisha: Come on. Come on Joe…
Man over P.A.: This is the water jump… oh and f…
Khadisha: Oh my god! She walked like a donkey, what did I tell you, what did I tell you. Oh my god! This is what I mean, how can there possibly be a system? How can you possibly know?
Man over P.A.: Last on the far side…
Khadisha: Oh my god!
Man over P.A.: …temporary knuckled on landing
Khadisha: Does [IB] that it’s going to win… he’s in third place. Third place, the rains started, the winds getting stronger. How can it possibly catch up? It’s not going to win.
Man over P.A.: One fence to jump now it’s only a very narrow lead, here’s Joe, he’s almost level with him now as they [IB] and he’s down…
Khadisha: Oh my god! Oh my god!
Man over P.A: …and looking beat is going to be a very fortunate winner of this Marshal’s [IB]
Khadisha: Oh my god. Oh my god.
Man over P.A.: …was caught under pressure has eventually ended up taking the race so here’s Johnny…
Khadisha: Show me my money! Oh my god! I don’t understand that. Isn’t there are place all the way? Can you believe it?
Man01: It’s not part beginner’s luck.
Khadisha: Can you believe that.
Man01: 852, 975.
Khadisha: Aaaah! So after the fifth race and I won again, just under a grand and I was over the moon jumping for joy that I’m in the… you know… Newbury at a racecourse seeing the horses live I get taken to meet the person that has been doing this whole thing, the anonymous person that’s been doing the system.
DB: Hi Khadisha!
Khadisha: Hello.
DB: Hello I’m Derren.
Khadisha: And then I met Derren Brown and honestly I was scared. Okay now I’m scared. I was confused thinking oh my god, all this time, you know. [IB] I didn’t put in more money if I knew it was him, you know, so I’d have retired by now.
DB: So, I’ve developed a system which is a foolproof 100% system of winning at the races. You’ve seen that it works, and you’ve seen that it works all the time. Even this afternoon, when it just looked like there was no way that it could.
Khadisha: It did looked like that actually.
DB: Now so far, you have made some money. You’ve been putting 20 quid, 50 quid, and then you put in 150 quid today?
Khadisha: Yeah.
DB: But this is, small amounts compared to what I’d want you to do next. All right? You’ve won five races in a row. I’m going to give you the name of the sixth winner. And then that will be it.
Khadisha: Oh my god.
DB: So I want you to put a lot of money on it. All right? Because I want this show to finish with you winning a huge sum of money, all right? So we’re talking several thousand pounds if you can get that together. I know the minute I say that, everything… Oh where am I going to get that money from, what happens if I lose? You will not lose because the system never fails.
Khadisha: Okay.
DB: All right? I just want to finish the show with you winning a massive amount that’s going to change your life, so.
Khadisha: Okay.
DB: It’s so exciting. Also, if you do do this and if you commit to it as I hope you will I will also tell you, I will also explain to you how the system works, all right? So even though it’s the last time I’ll give you… if you want to use the system yourself, you are welcome to. You may choose not to, it’s a lot of work to make it work. But I will tell you, I will teach you exactly how it works. So you’ll have that too.
Khadisha: Okay.
DB: At the moment, its only me that knows exactly how it works you’ll be the other person.
Khadisha: No problem. Oh I don’t know. It’s just crazy, its just crazy. How can you know a system for this? How can you?
DB: So now I’m going to tell you how the system works. How can Khadisha be receiving correct predictions for each race? Bear in mind, the predictions are made well in advance and the races are quite genuine. How does it work? Well, it all starts with this. That is a homeopathic remedy it’s called astrogallus, uh, you take it for viral infections but you could substitute that for anything you might take for diabetes or insomnia or indeed it could be a healing crystal or anything that represents an alternative therapy of your choice. You might have a viral infection, you might take astrogallus you might feel better and decide therefore it must be an effective cure. The point is, it works for you, what more proof could you need? The trouble is that when these things are tested properly over thousands of people they are shown to really have no effect whatsoever. The trap that people fall into is to think; “all the evidence I need is what I know in my head and what I feel in my heart and what I just know to be true.” But that isn’t really evidence for being true that’s just a statement about how much you believe it and also how limiting your own perspective can be.
Now Khadisha believes in the system she’s convinced by it because she’s only looking at it from her own perspective. And at home if you haven’t worked out how the system works yet either is because you are also only seeing it from Khadisha’s point of view. Now it’s time to force a change in perspective and to look at the bigger picture and let’s begin with that coin again.
Ten heads in a row, watch. To predict a run of ten heads in a row, and then make it happen is hugely unlikely. The chance of it happening is about one in a thousand. However, if you flick a coin thousands of times and record the results somewhere along that line of heads and tails, a line of ten heads is actually very likely to appear.
Okay ten heads in a row. That’s one. To work out the system you need to understand that we can only know what comes from our own limited experience and our experience can often be very far from the truth. I can’t see the bowl anymore. Here we go, ten… we were saying. What you saw was the final minute of what was an excruciatingly long day. We filmed for over nine hours. Until eventually a clear run of heads appeared. Nine heads… last one. The impossible became inevitable. Ten, ten heads in a row, thank you very much indeed. You now have all the clues needed to work out for yourself how the system operates. I shall fully explain it in a few minutes.
I want you to ask yourself, if you haven’t already; can there really be a system? Should she be doing this? Is this an amazing opportunity for Khadisha or if she takes it, is it a terrible mistake?
Khadisha: I’m going to my dad’s. So I’m going to get some cash to put down.
Derren Brown: That is a homeopathic remedy it’s called astrogallus, you take it for viral infections but you could substitute that for anything you might take for uh, diabetes or insomnia or indeed it can be a healing crystal or anything that represents an alternative therapy of your choice. You might have a viral infection, you might take astrogallus you might feel better and decide therefore it must be an effective cure. The point is, it works for you, what more proof could you need? The trouble is that when these things are tested properly over thousands of people they are really shown to have no effect whatsoever. The trap that people fall into is to think; “all the evidence I need is what I know in my head and what I feel in my heart and what I just know to be true.” But that isn’t really evidence for being true that’s just a statement about how much you believe in and also how limiting your own perspective can be.
Derren Brown: Take your time. Just put your hand out when you’ve chosen one and… okay great, lovely. Oh got one? Excellent! Thank you very much indeed. Unclip the pictures. Just take them off the string. They’ve got these little pegs on each one, lovely. So bringing your picture with you… but I want you to do, not quite yet… when I tell you to, is to come and stand on one of these four black spots that there are here on the uh… on the ground. So if you come and do that for me now, any one of these four, excellent, thank you very much indeed.
So there are five hundred pictures there you’ve each got one you’ve come back and stood on one of the spots each, thus putting yourself in a… in a different order and uh… chosen large… it is by chance it is random apart from the fact that whoever would’ve… probably whoever was closest whoever took the picture of the closest would’ve had the choice whom anyone would’ve thought [IB], who was last to come in?
James Boyle: I was last.
DB: Yeah, so you didn’t have any choice at all. The order you put yourself if you look at your stickers is 1-3-4-2, yes? And you’re happy that that is… here hold on to that for a second for me… you’re happy that that is a randomly… seemingly unpredictable order that you would come and stand in, yes? Okay. Just open up the red envelope, that sort of was hanging there along and just read out what it says in there.
Philip Bell: The order you’ll stand in will be 1-3-4-2.
DB: 1-3-4-2 so turn it around show it to the camera, 1-3-4-2 the order that you’ve ended up standing in, excellent, thank you very much, congratulations. A seemingly impossible thing to predict but the point is, it’s not impossible… it’s not… it’s highly improbable but not impossible, all right? Now you’re all horse experts, so, what are the odds of me predicting, knowing in advance which order, you were going to stand in? One of you has a choice of four, the next person has a choice of three, the next person has a choice of two, the next one, one. The answer is 4x3x2x, which is 24. 1 in 24, that’s the improbable odds of me knowing in advance which order you were going to come and stand in, all right? Not impossible, just highly improbable. Okay. Next, if you just take the pictures and if you just turn them around and show the cameras so we can see uh… who these people are, let’s get the names as well.
James Pyman: Jenny Pringle.
DB: Jenny Pringle, thank you. And just show the camera and…
Philip Bell: Peter Burgess.
DB: Peter Burgess.
Katie Stephens: Karl Smith.
DB: Carl Smith.
Jim Boyle: Jane Baker.
DB; Jane Baker, excellent! Okay. So sorry, so Jenny Pringle, Your full name is…
James Pyman: James Pyman.
DB: Pyman, so your initials are J.P. and the initials of this woman are also J.P.
James Pyman: J.P.
DB: Your name is?
Phil Bell: Phil Bell.
DB: Phil Bell, now show us…
Phil Bell: Peter Burgess.
DB: Same initials, “P.B.” yes? You’re initials, are they a match?
Katie Stephens: Yes. Katie Stephens.
DB: Katie Stephens and what’s that, Karl Smith? And your full name is Jim…
Jim Boyle: Boyle…
DB: Jim Boyle, J.B. all right? So your initials, matched the initials of the photographs you picked, and please have a look around. None of the other initials, matched any of your names. All right? Seemingly impossible for this to happen but its not impossible, its just highly improbable. Yeah? What are the chances of that happening? There are 500 pictures, so the first person to take one has a choice of 500, the next person doesn’t why? Because the next person only has a choice of 499 because one of them has just been taken and the next person has a choice of 498 and the next one 497, so that number 500x499x498x497 gives you the probability of you picking the polaroids, the only polaroids that have the same initials that match yours and, the… who mixed the envelopes at the beginning? That was, you? Because you mixed the envelopes you handed them out, you each took one if you open them up, take out what’s inside.
In fact, wait, do yours first for me so we can get this on camera. Could you open yours up? Recognize the picture? It’s a picture that matches the Polaroid that you took. That is Jenny… was It Jenny Pringle?
James Pyman: Jenny Pringle.
DB: Could you open yours up as well Phil? Hopefully that matches the one that you just picked. And Katie? Excellent, and you do the same for me Jim. Is it the same… just hold them up with the pictures as well… Fantastic! You picked the ones that matched the envelopes that you mixed and took at the beginning. Again, the chances of that impossible! Seemingly impossible but the same odds! It’s 500x499x498x497 which means if you just keep hold of your Polaroids but just drop everything else on the floor just by the… spots around. Just keep holding on to your little Polaroids. The chances… what are the chances of all of that happening? The chances of me knowing where you were going to stand which pictures you were going to take, the initials matching up and matching what picked at the random envelopes in the beginning… if you come forward for me. If you come back to where you were, if you put yourselves back into uh… 1,2,3,4 orders so 1,2,3,4 and I’m going to give you a uh… let me just give you a calculator there… the chances of all of that happening is 24 times this here. So if you do 500x499x498x497 anybody watching this at home with a computer or a big calculator you might want to do this. Work out what that is for me and then multiply that by 24. The answer, I can tell you is 1482065… doing this? 928000 is that the correct number?
Katie Stephens: That’s the correct number.
DB: That’s the odds of all of those things happening. Not impossible, just massively improbable. One last thing, could you just hold of the faces together so the camera can see. Just hold the Polaroids up. Just bring them together a little bit, excellent. I did say there are numbers on the back not to pay any attention to them yet, all right? Now I’m going to turn these around. Have a look at them on the back before I turn them around, 1,482,065,928,000. You picked the Polaroids that had the numbers on the back that make up the odds of all of that having happened and that odds is 1.48 billion it’s the same odds as the system existing in the first place that allows me to pick the horses every time. Not impossible, just massively improbable. Thank you very much, something you would think about. Cheers! Thank you for taking part thank you Jim, a pleasure.
Katie Stephens: Thank you very much.
DB: Thank you, thank you very much indeed. Excellent. I shall leave you with those numbers. Cheers.
Katie Stephens: Mesmerized.
Jim Boyle: I can’t believe what I’ve seen really. I’m actually flabbergasted.
James Pyman: I was actually trying to took turn the numbers out in my head and work out as there [IB] at what the probability was and I quickly got lost and the number just got bigger and bigger and it’s just astonishing. Uh, if he wants to come and work at the Writing Post then I’m sure there’d be a job offer for him.
Phil Bell: I mean if horses are as predictable as humans then Derren [IB] just actually went up.
James Pyman: My opinion has changed. Before it was pretty much impossible and I’m now curious to know what he’s come up with.
Katie Stephens: I said initially that it depends what side of the stable the horse comes out in the morning but I think Derren would probably know.
Derren Brown: Part of what makes the system seems so impossible is that it defies our understanding of probability and influence over future events. And I’m going to show you something now that which is impossible in the exact same way and that is to toss a coin fairly, ten times in a row and have it come up heads every time. Now, we filmed this under controlled conditions with multiple cameras that won’t cut away and it’s a genuine coin with heads on one side and tails on the other. But I want you to watch this and try and work out how it can be possible because the key to understanding this, is the key to understanding the system.
Ten heads in a row. Watch. One, that’s heads. Two, that’s heads. Three, heads. Heads, that is four. Heads, five, six. Four more to go and I’ll stop. Seven. Three more. Eight. Nine heads. Last one, ten. Ten heads in a row. Thank you very much indeed. I’ll show you later on exactly how that’s possible but for now, I need to take what I’m doing with the coin and apply that to the horseraces so that I can predict again and again the results of the races and convince Khadisha that my system really works. Now I’m not the first person to try and come up with the horseracing system. It’s been attempted in the past but it has never ever worked. My system though, is the first system that guarantees a win, over and over again and later on, I’m going to show you how.
Man01: It wouldn’t be easy for a punter to make a living out of horseracing.
Man over P.A.: Two grays, Classic Croco on the outside if the Corellion as they go towards the third…
Woman01: There can’t be a system you’re dealing with an animal. It’s not a machine. You can’t set it. If it comes out of the stable the wrong side in the morning he might not be winning this race.
Man over P.A.: Nation State jumped it better over the creek, behind him in predicament that’s swiftly on defense number 5.
Man02: Somebody said to me they had a system. It’s rubbish.
Man03: Really, there’s only one winner and the bookmaker’s the winner.
Man04: If there was a winning system, there would be no bookmaker’s.
Man05: When we come to work we come out with a load of cigars where we work. Because we know at the end of the day we’re going to celebrate with a nice cigar on the way home, so all you punters are going to lose all your money. So that’s what we come here with.
James Pyman: To find a system that would change your life that is what we’re talking about that is definitely improbable and even if you think you found it, having the guts to back that’s… to back that up and having, putting down large sums of money to make it change your life is.. it… is another step forward altogether.
Man over P.A.: Imperial Commander over in front, Formation staying in second place Blundering back in third was… Imperial Commander the all time favorite comes up the hill, storms up the hill draws the final frontier and he comes towards it, jumps it quite well, tell the others the Imperial Commander… [IB] as the Nation’s State in second place as the [IB] battles over the creek maybe… if it weren’t for that maybe. But having Imperial Commander having won here last month makes it two out of two the winner here, jumping…
DB: After four wins in a row, its time for Khadisha to experience the excitement of a live horserace. And while she gets ready for that, I wanted to convince the experts against their instincts that maybe it is possible for a system to really exist.
I arranged to meet some racing experts to test out some of my ideas and hopefully convince them that I could indeed have a reliable system. Phil Bell, is the manager of the Fontwell Park racecourse. Katie Stephens is the manager of the Hereford racecourse. James Pyman is a journalist and tipster for the racing post. Jim Boyle is a racehorse trainer and a council member of the National Trainers Federation.
Can I get you to mix up those fine blokes for me just give them a mix and you can stick these on yourselves, they peel off and you can put the backings in your pocket if you like. Thank you very much. Just put one of those, on you each. I’d like you to grab one of those as well. Thank you. Have an envelope too. You’ve all been interviewed about this idea of there being a system and whether it’s possible to predict the horse accurately and predictably. All of you have said no, it’s not possible. I would say that its… massively unlikely, but by no means impossible to have a system that would work. A mathematician worked out the probability of having a system that would accurately predict a winning horse every time is, it’s 1.48 to one, hugely unlikely, as good as impossible but not impossible. That’s what actually… just massively improbable.
So what I’m going to do, um… is to want you to just sort of step into this world of people here. There are five hundred worth of Polaroid pictures members of the public and I’m going to ask you to each go and select one of these pictures. It’s just really important as you do this, that this is a random selection so please don’t let what the people look like. You know how attractive or unattractive they are. Don’t let any of that influence you. Some, you know, if any of the names happen to remind you of people, you know again none of that is to influence you at all. It has to be random selection, that’s very important at this point. What I would say is, by doing this I am showing you how my system works. It will make more sense to you when you watch the program back… that’ll… you’ll understand what I mean. Please have a good look around at them all. You will see they are all different. Take as long as you like when you’ve got one just stand by it and let me know that you’ve chosen one. But take as long as you like have a good wander around first.
The pictures themselves, have long numbers on the back but don’t worry about those for now. Those will be important later on. Take your time. Just put your hand out when you’ve chosen one and… okay great, lovely. Oh got one? Excellent! Thank you very much indeed. Unclip the pictures. Just take them off the string. They’ve got this little pegs on each one, lovely. So bringing your picture with you… but I want you to do, not quite yet… when I tell you to, is to come and stand on one of these four black spots there are here on the uh… on the ground. So if you come and do that for me now, any one of these four, excellent. Thank you very much indeed.
So there are five hundred pictures there you’ve each got one you’ve come back and stood on one of the spots each, thus putting yourself in a… in a different order and uh… chosen large… it is by chance it is random apart from the fact that whoever would’ve… probably whoever was closest whoever took the picture of the closest would’ve had the choice whom anyone would’ve thought [IB], who was last to come in?
James Boyle: I was last.
DB: Yeah, so you didn’t have any choice at all. The order you put yourself if you look at your stickers is 1-3-4-2, yes? And you’re happy that that is… here hold on to that for a second for me… you’re happy that that is a randomly… seemingly unpredictable order that you would come and stand in, yes? Okay. Just open up the red envelope, that sort of was hanging there along and just read out what it says in there.
Philip Bell: The order you’ll stand in will be 1-3-4-2.
DB: 1-3-4-2 so turn it around show it to the camera, 1-3-4-2 the order that you’ve ended up standing in, excellent, thank you very much, congratulations. A seemingly impossible thing to predict but the point is, it’s not impossible… it’s not… it’s highly improbable but not impossible, all right? Now you’re all horse experts, so, what are the odds of me predicting, knowing in advance which order, you were going to stand in? One of you has a choice of four, the next person has a choice of three, the next person has a choice of two, the next one, one. The answer is 4x3x2x, which is 24. 1 in 24, that’s the improbable odds of me knowing in advance which order you were going to come and stand in, all right? Not impossible, just highly improbable. Okay. Next, If you just take the pictures and if you just turn them around and show the cameras so we can see uh… who these people are. Let’s get the names as well
James Pyman: Jenny Pringle.
DB: Jenny Pringle, thank you. And just show the camera and…
I want to show you something. Let me show you. No, come here, come here, come here. Move your hands. No, no take the top off. No, take the top off, take the top off. It’s ok don’t bring this.Take the top off. The whole lid.Let me show you something, look.Taste the coffee.Make sure it’s not too hot. It’s ok. Look, as God is the witness, look. Look, like how I hold it. Ready, watch.
Mantra*
Look, you see it. It’s starting to go icy.
Oh! Oh how’d you do that one? Oh God. Oh that’s your magic. There’s a spark…
There, this is for you.
Oh you’re so good, thank you guys, that’s the best gift. There’s a spark of magic in your eyes
Hey. Look. I have a deck of cards. What I want you to do is from in this deck, I want you to try to see one card. Not this one but look closely, try to see one inside. Did you get one? Wait I’ll do it again. It might have been too quick. Try to see a card inside if you can. Did you see one? Did you think you did? Don’t say it; just hold it in your mind. And now this is not it but visualize your card right here.
Excuse me. How you doing?
Alright. How are you doing?
I’m good. You wanna see something?
I wanna see something?
Yeah.
I don’t know what that is men.
What?
Hold this. Hold this here. Hold this here. Let’s say we use two cards. Name a number from 10 to 15 and they’re gonna switch. But name it out loud so I can hear it.
7.
Alright. So 1 2 3 4 5 6 7. Right. See? Switched. Here, I got something for you, a present.
I like it when he round like that, do it again.
Here’s a present for you.
Oh my God, it’s sick. Oh, that was great. That was a good one in the park today. Isn’t it great? Oh my God, how did you get her watch? Hey, wait a second. I’m kind of broke, yeah. Can you make money? Ok so spill out my money man.
Point, touch my finger. Do you feel that?
Yeah.
You feel it happening? Can you feel that? Look at my watch.
I was just gonna say where was your watch? Oh my God.